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穆迪:營運環境改善將為發展商穩定盈利奠定基礎
評級機構穆迪表示,香港的物業市場正在逐步復甦,原因是寫字樓租賃需求改善,以及零售銷售隨著旅遊業回升而復甦。這些趨勢收窄了寫字樓租金的跌幅,並支持了零售租金收入,儘管高空置率及仍然高企的供應量繼續對寫字樓市場構成壓力。住宅發展銷售在2026年初有所改善,但低利潤率將繼續限制發展商盈利上升空間。外部風險已經加劇,因為中東衝突-如果持續下去-有可能推高通脹和利率,...
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穆迪:營運環境改善將為發展商穩定盈利奠定基礎
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評級機構穆迪表示,香港的物業市場正在逐步復甦,原因是寫字樓租賃需求改善,以及零售銷售隨著旅遊業回升而復甦。這些趨勢收窄了寫字樓租金的跌幅,並支持了零售租金收入,儘管高空置率及仍然高企的供應量繼續對寫字樓市場構成壓力。住宅發展銷售在2026年初有所改善,但低利潤率將繼續限制發展商盈利上升空間。外部風險已經加劇,因為中東衝突-如果持續下去-有可能推高通脹和利率,並阻礙復甦。

除非全球金融狀況顯著收緊,否則發展商整體盈利將大致持平。預計在2026至27年,所評級公司的整體EBITDA將保持與2025年水平大致相若。

寫字樓市場狀況正在逐步穩定,但持續的新供應限制了復甦的步伐。過去一年,在資本市場活動重拾動力及首次公開招股管道活躍的支持下,租賃需求增強,帶動核心區域的即期租金上升。然而,整體空置率仍處於十年來最高水平,續租租金仍輕微下滑。

零售物業表現雖然不均,但正在改善。訪港旅客數字上升及本地消費支持了零售銷售,令擁有優質資產及積極進行資產提升計劃的業主受惠。那些在重大資產升級或租戶組合優化方面進行投資的公司,其人流和租金的改善更為明顯,而對於沒有進行重大提升的資產,續租租金下調仍然持續。

儘管存在加息風險,住宅銷售將會復甦。自2025年中以來,在較低按揭利率及內地買家需求的支持下,樓價已反彈。穆迪預期開發商的盈利不會因潛在的加息而受到重大影響,因為今年確認的大多數項目已預售,且盈利已以較低的發展利潤率鎖定。

所評級公司擁有足夠的緩衝應對外部風險。中東衝突若持續,將會削弱終端需求,並延遲香港物業市場的復甦。儘管如此,大多數所評級公司自2021年以來已減少債務和槓桿,即使市場變得波動,它們也擁有充足的財務緩衝。(ad/da)

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