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《大行》中金:短期資金壓制物極必反 料內險股估值修復 薦太保(02601.HK)平安(02318.HK)等
中金發表報告指,4月以來中資保險行業股價並未跟隨股市修復,近期路演提供較多啟示,認為短期資金壓制物極必反、行業有望走向估值修復,看好優質公司、推薦太保(02601.HK)/平安(02318.HK)/太平(00966.HK)/國壽(02628.HK)/財險(02328.HK)。目標價詳見另表。對於保險行業為何跌跌不休,中金指,近期市場風格較為極致,保險與科技等...
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《大行》中金:短期資金壓制物極必反 料內險股估值修復 薦太保(02601.HK)平安(02318.HK)等
Recommend
21
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36
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13
 
 

中金發表報告指,4月以來中資保險行業股價並未跟隨股市修復,近期路演提供較多啟示,認為短期資金壓制物極必反、行業有望走向估值修復,看好優質公司、推薦太保(02601.HK)  -0.240 (-0.729%)    Short selling $89.49M; Ratio 19.187%   /平安(02318.HK)  -0.450 (-0.728%)    Short selling $479.62M; Ratio 21.097%   /太平(00966.HK)  -0.060 (-0.280%)    Short selling $28.48M; Ratio 15.748%   /國壽(02628.HK)  -0.140 (-0.470%)    Short selling $1.02B; Ratio 45.565%   /財險(02328.HK)  +0.190 (+1.231%)    Short selling $338.26M; Ratio 21.711%   。目標價詳見另表。

對於保險行業為何跌跌不休,中金指,近期市場風格較為極致,保險與科技等行業相比吸引力不足,導致追逐短期相對收益的資金流出;中證金及相關資管計劃等長期股東持續減持A股保險行業帶來資金面壓制;部分投資者反饋保險估值水平較此前已有修復,盈利彈性邏輯波動性大、當前位置彈性邏輯吸引力有限。

報告指,行業需要長期修復邏輯而不僅是交易彈性。過去兩年行業股價短期受到股市收益預期影響較大,重要原因是估值低且股市和保險短期盈利上修空間大,該行曾在2025年底認為行業會轉向估值修復,但2026年初的快速上漲再度由股市預期高增驅動。近期保險滯漲再次提示市場開始在意盈利基數
走高後向上彈性走弱、高波動的盈利難給高估值,行業需要有更長期穩定的邏輯,利率、負債成本和擴張速度是壽險長期價值的核心影響因素,考慮成本後的負債擴展速度才是高估值的支撐。

該行指,個險和保障險回歸增長或是深度估值修復的關鍵,並依舊認為儲蓄險的意義不只是實現增長,而是吸引高客和高素質代理人、進而助力個險和保障型產品回歸增長,這二者才是保險公司能夠實現負債成本差異化、提升長期盈利能力和股東回報,取得優秀國際同業估值或相近水平的核心,當前若滿足於銀保高增而放棄對於個險和保障型產品的投入和摸索會得不償失。(ha/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-19 16:25.)

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