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<Research>M Stanley: HK Mar Retail Sales Fall as Predicted, Apr Drop Expected at 10%; Developers Preferred Over Landlords
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Hong Kong's retail sales fell 7% YoY in March as expected (as compared with Morgan Stanley's expectation of an 8% drop), given the high base and continued outbound spending by Hong Kong people, Morgan Stanley issued a research report saying.

Morgan Stanley expected Hong Kong's retail sales to decrease by 10% YoY in April, and preferred residential developers over retail landlords.

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Hong Kong developers with local retail exposure, naming WHARF REIC (01997.HK), LINK REIT (00823.HK), HYSAN DEV (00014.HK) and FORTUNE REIT (00778.HK), underperformed the HSI by 12-29 ppts YTD, according to the report.

The YoY decline in retail sales in March and Morgan Stanley's forecast of a 9% YoY decline in 2Q24 will put short-term pressure on these stocks.

Morgan Stanley preferred the residential sector, and ranked SHK PPT (00016.HK) and SINO LAND (00083.HK) above retail and office landlords, according to the report.

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Morgan Stanley downgraded HYSAN DEV to Equalweight earlier, due to slowing retail momentum, high office exposure and its dividend not being supported by cash flow.
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