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<Research>CICC Sets HSI 2026 Base Case at 28,000-29,000
Recommend 46 Positive 67 Negative 25 |
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Under base case, Hong Kong stocks' earnings growth in 2026 will be 3% (vs 6% in 2025, and current market expectation 9-10%), with non-financial growth at 6-7% (vs 8% in 2025), and financials expected to have zero growth, according to CICC calculations. Thus, there is limited room at the market index level, with room stemming from economic structure or unexpected retreats. Considering earnings, risk-free rates, and risk premiums, the broker estimated the HSI's 2026 midpoint at 28,000-29,000, under base case. For bull case, it is around 31,000, and bear case, near 21,000. CICC recommended overweighting AI software and hardware (AI industry trends and external demand mapping), new energy (capacity clearing and external demand mapping), chemicals (capacity clearing and external demand mapping), home furnishings (capacity clearing and external demand mapping), and innovative drugs (industry trends and external demand mapping), while underweighting real estate, food retail, and household personal products. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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